Dr Delphi Ward1,2, Dr Jessica Melbourne-Thomas1,2, Dr Anna Richards3, Dr Beth Fulton1,2, Mr Derek Fulton1, Dr Gabriela Scheufele4, Dr Rowan Trebilco1,2, Dr Ingrid van Putten1,2
1CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart, Australia, 2Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia, 3CSIRO Land & Water, Darwin, Australia, 4CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, St Lucia, Australia
Environmental, societal and economic tipping points are of increasing concern for managers, marine industries and coastal communities, as unprecedented conditions occur in our global oceans, and extreme events and economic shocks become more frequent. These rapid and dramatic changes can have cascading effects for people and ecosystems, and the ability to plan for them is critical to successful adaptation outcomes. Tipping points can also be positive – for example in the context of accelerating transitions towards sustainability and low carbon economies – and these opportunities are equally important for planning adaptation pathways.
Tipping points have been studied in both human and natural systems, however understanding how tipping points interact across social, ecological and biophysical dimensions remains a major challenge. In this presentation we explore how combining knowledge co-production and scenario modelling can help elicit and forecast socio-ecological system trajectories in the context of tipping points, to empower local industries, communities and government to choose adaptation pathways leading to more sustainable and resilient social-ecological system states. We share preliminary findings from interviews with community members and stakeholders on Tasmania’s east coast, where temperate reef systems are extant, to understand perspectives on tipping points and how people manage significant change. We highlight community needs and values in managing risks and trade-offs associated with shocks and tipping points, and perspectives on willingness to drive positive tipping points. Finally, we discuss how novel engagement approaches such as participatory games can help elicit collective visions for the future of temperate reef systems and associated human communities.
Biography:
Biography to come
